Last updated: 2001-01-23
Notice: © 1994 to 2001, Chris R. Burger. This document may be reproduced as required for personal use, and may be freely referenced from other Web sites. However, publication elsewhere requires express written permission from the author.
Over the years, I've toyed with various mathematical models to try to objectively assess DXCC scores. Clearly, the more countries you have, the more difficult it becomes to add new countries. A scoring system must reflect this increase in difficulty.
Anyone who has studied exponential growth models understands the concept of a half life. Populations of animals, plants and even germs follow the rules of exponential growth.
It is even possible that DXCC scores follow a similar trend. My own experience on different bands and modes was used to test various models, and the results are not far from the truth.
Based on these tests, I include a table below, proposing a mark out of ten for different DXCC scores. You can use this scale to assess the merits of your own DX achievements, or the scores of other stations in the tables above.
The bottom line is:
1 202
2 268
3 301
4 317
5 326
6 330
7 332
8 333
9 333
10 334
DXCC Honour Roll entry level represents a score of five out of ten--barely a pass mark! It looks like reaching the entry level of the DXCC Honour Roll is half way to the top. Working the remaining 9 countries takes as much effort as it took to get to the entry level in the first place.
Looking back at your DXing career, you'll probably notice that moving up the scale by one step takes roughly an equal amount of effort (and time), regardless of where you are on the scale.
You'll also notice that South Africans are pathetic underachievers when it comes to single-band DXing. This conclusion may seem harsh, but even the top scorer (ZS6YQ on 14 MHz) has a score of only seven out of ten. Even he still has roughly half as much work left as he's already put in! Only six of the sixty scores listed break the 30% barrier.
In mitigation, I'm often told that South Africa is a terrible location, with QRN during the prime low band DXing seasons, and with a huge disadvantage when trying to work stations beaming into the major population centres. I contend that these disadvantages are not seriously limiting yet, as the top stations are still making relatively rapid progress. If we were truly approaching the limits of what's possible from this part of the world, the leading stations would be stuck at their current levels, unable to move. The reality is that all leading stations have improved their scores by almost one point since this survey was first published in 1994. There's definitely ample room for improvement.For the engineers and mathematicians among you, the table was obtained by assuming that around 70 countries will be worked quickly, after which a restricted exponential growth model applies to the remaining countries. For those that are not nerds, I once wrote an article explaining the methodology that normal people could probably understand. I might even publish the article some day, if there proves to be enough interest.
In the mean time, let's see if we can push these scores up gradually; Cycle 23 is definitely doing its bit to provide spectacular high band DXing over the next few years. I predict that 28 MHz will see scores of more than 300 before the end of 2001, with a corresponding increase in entry level to over 260.
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